MoneyMind Finance: Delta Air Lines Stock Watch spreadsheet
"As of Oct 7 2026. Scores are MoneyMind Finance own judgement, not fact. Educational only, not investment advice."

SECTION 1: STOCK WATCH SCORE
Criterion,Score (1 to 5),Reason
Revenue momentum,4,"Revenue up 14% and guided to mid-teens, but capacity grew only about 1%"
Profit quality,3,Margin fell from 11.2% to 8.8% on fuel; June quarter free cash flow only $209 million
Balance sheet,4,"Adjusted net debt $13.6 billion, down from year-end; leverage target near 2x"
Customer concentration,4,"Broad customer base, but one partner (American Express) pays $2.4 billion a quarter"
Valuation vs growth,4,About 11.8 times the midpoint of 2026 EPS guidance
Catalyst clarity,5,Dated report on Oct 9 2026 with published guidance
Total (out of 30),=SUM(B6:B11),

"SECTION 2: FIVE YEAR BUSINESS CALCULATOR (change the inputs; this projects the business, not a share price)"
Starting adjusted revenue ($ billions),61.7,Sum of last four reported quarters: 15.2 + 14.6 + 14.2 + 17.7
Years,5,
Scenario,Revenue growth per year,Operating margin in final year,Revenue in final year ($ billions),Operating profit in final year ($ billions)
Cautious,0.02,0.06,=$B$15*(1+B18)^$B$16,=D18*C18
Middle,0.04,0.1,=$B$15*(1+B19)^$B$16,=D19*C19
Optimistic,0.055,0.12,=$B$15*(1+B20)^$B$16,=D20*C20

SECTION 3: VALUATION CHECK
"Share price ($), Oct 7 2026 midday",82.5,Yahoo Finance 82.47 and Google Finance 82.69
"2026 adjusted EPS guidance, low",6.5,Delta July 2026 guidance
"2026 adjusted EPS guidance, midpoint","=AVERAGE(B24,B26)",
"2026 adjusted EPS guidance, high",7.5,Delta July 2026 guidance
P/E at low end of guidance,=B23/B24,
P/E at midpoint,=B23/B25,
P/E at high end of guidance,=B23/B26,

SECTION 4: SOURCE DATA,,,
Item,Value,Date,Source
"Delta June 2026 quarter, GAAP revenue",$19.8 billion,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
"Delta June 2026 quarter, adjusted revenue",$17.7 billion,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
Delta refinery third-party sales,$2.091 billion,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
Delta adjusted operating margin,8.8%,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
Delta adjusted EPS (analyst estimate 1.51),$1.56,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K; Yahoo Finance
Delta adjusted fuel price per gallon (up 75% year over year),$3.93,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
Delta adjusted fuel expense (up 77%),$4.4 billion,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K; Yahoo Finance
"Delta free cash flow, June quarter",$209 million,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
Delta adjusted net debt,$13.6 billion,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
Delta premium ticket revenue (up 17%),$6.920 billion,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
Delta main cabin ticket revenue,$6.851 billion,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
Delta American Express remuneration (up 16%),$2.4 billion,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
Delta unit revenue (TRASM) growth,12.4%,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
Delta non-fuel unit cost (CASM-Ex),"14.09 cents, up 6.8%",2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
Delta capacity growth,About 1%,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
"Delta September 2026 quarter guidance, revenue growth",Mid-teens,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
"Delta September 2026 quarter guidance, operating margin",11% to 13%,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
"Delta September 2026 quarter guidance, EPS",$2.00 to $2.50,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
"Delta September 2026 quarter guidance, fuel per gallon",About $3.15,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
"Delta full year 2026 guidance, adjusted EPS",$6.50 to $7.50,2026-07-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
"Delta March 2026 quarter: adj revenue, margin, EPS, fuel",$14.2B; 4.6%; $0.64; $2.62,2026-04,Delta press release (PR Newswire)
"Delta December 2025 quarter: adj revenue, margin, EPS, fuel",$14.6B; 10.1%; $1.55; $2.28,2026-01,Delta investor relations release
"Delta September 2025 quarter: adj revenue, margin, EPS, fuel",$15.2B; 11.2%; $1.71; $2.25,2025-10,Delta Form 8-K (SEC)
United June 2026 quarter: adj operating margin; fuel per gallon,5.4%; $4.19,2026-07-15,United press release
American June 2026 quarter: adj operating margin; fuel per gallon,2.7%; $4.05,2026-07,American Form 8-K (SEC)
American full year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance,-$0.65 to $0.65,2026-07,American Form 8-K (SEC)
"Delta share price, 52 week range",$82.47; $55.03 to $95.68,2026-10-07,"Yahoo Finance quote page, 11:04 AM EDT"
Delta share price cross-check,$82.69,2026-10-07,"Google Finance, 11:02 AM EDT"
Delta market cap,$54.2 billion (Yahoo); $55.0 billion (Google),2026-10-07,Yahoo Finance; Google Finance
Delta trailing P/E,13.70 (Yahoo); 13.74 (Google),2026-10-07,Yahoo Finance; Google Finance