MoneyMind Stock Watch Score: Nike (NKE),Score (1 to 5),Justification
Revenue momentum,2,Flat FY2026 revenue; Q1 FY2027 guided down low to mid single digits
Profit quality,2,Underlying FY2026 EPS $1.58 excluding $986M tariff refund vs $2.10 reported
Balance sheet,4,$9.0B cash and short-term investments vs $7.9B total debt (May 31 2026)
Customer concentration,4,Sales spread across four regions and wholesale plus direct channels
Valuation vs growth,2,About 22x forward earnings (CNBC NTM) while sales shrink
Catalyst clarity,5,Oct 1 results; Nov 10 tariff truce deadline; Nov 16-17 Investor Day
Total out of 30,=SUM(B2:B7),"MoneyMind Finance judgement, not fact"

FIVE-YEAR BUSINESS CALCULATOR (change the input values in column B),Value,Notes
Starting revenue FY2026 ($ billions),46.4,"Nike FY2026 revenue, $46,398M"
"Yearly revenue growth (decimal, e.g. 0.03 = 3%)",0.03,Input
EBIT margin in final year (decimal),0.1,Input
Years,5,FY2026 to FY2031
Projected revenue ($ billions),=B11*(1+B12)^B14,Formula
Projected operating profit ($ billions),=B15*B13,Formula
Change in revenue vs FY2026,=B15/B11-1,Formula

Scenario,Growth,Margin,FY2031 revenue ($B),Operating profit ($B)
Bear,-0.01,0.07,=46.4*(1+B20)^5,=D20*C20
Base,0.03,0.1,=46.4*(1+B21)^5,=D21*C21
Bull,0.06,0.13,=46.4*(1+B22)^5,=D22*C22

SOURCE DATA,Value,Date,Origin
Q1 FY25 revenue / gross margin / Greater China revenue,"$11,589M / 45.4% / $1,666M",Quarter to Aug 31 2024,"Nike Q1 FY26 release, Sep 30 2025 (prior-year column)"
Q2 FY25,"$12,354M / 43.6% / $1,711M",Quarter to Nov 30 2024,"Nike Q2 FY26 release, Dec 18 2025 (prior-year column)"
Q3 FY25,"$11,269M / 41.5% / $1,733M",Quarter to Feb 28 2025,"Nike Q3 FY26 release, Mar 31 2026 (prior-year column)"
Q4 FY25,"$11,097M / 40.3% / $1,476M",Quarter to May 31 2025,"Nike Q4 FY26 release, Jun 30 2026 (prior-year column)"
Q1 FY26,"$11,720M / 42.2% / $1,512M",Quarter to Aug 31 2025,"Nike Q1 FY26 release, Sep 30 2025"
Q2 FY26,"$12,427M / 40.6% / $1,423M",Quarter to Nov 30 2025,"Nike Q2 FY26 release, Dec 18 2025"
Q3 FY26,"$11,279M / 40.2% / $1,615M",Quarter to Feb 28 2026,"Nike Q3 FY26 release, Mar 31 2026"
Q4 FY26,"$10,972M / 49.2% reported, 40.2% ex tariff refund / $1,297M",Quarter to May 31 2026,"Nike Q4 FY26 release and call, Jun 30 2026"
FY2026 revenue,"$46,398M",Year to May 31 2026,Nike Q4 FY26 release
FY2026 EPS reported / ex tariff refund,$2.10 / $1.58,Year to May 31 2026,Nike Q4 FY26 release and call
FY2026 EBIT reported / ex refund,"$3,850M / $2,864M",Year to May 31 2026,Nike Q4 FY26 release; refund $986M
Cash and short-term investments,"$9,027M",May 31 2026,Nike Q4 FY26 balance sheet
Total debt,"$7,942M",May 31 2026,Nike Q4 FY26 balance sheet
Dividends declared per share FY2026,$1.63,FY2026,Nike Q4 FY26 release
Share price close,$36.10,Sep 22 2026,Yahoo Finance and CNBC quote pages
52-week high / low,$76.97 (Oct 2 2025) / $35.35 (Sep 21 2026),Sep 22 2026,CNBC and Yahoo Finance
Market cap,$53.6B,Sep 22 2026,Yahoo Finance and CNBC
Forward P/E NTM,21.8,Sep 22 2026,CNBC
Peer forward P/E: Adidas / Deckers / On,11.47 / 10.46 / 14.27,Sep 21 2026,Insider Monkey via Yahoo Finance
Q1 FY27 guidance,Revenue down low to mid single digits; gross margin slightly up,Jun 30 2026,Nike Q4 FY26 earnings call