Why Bitcoin’s $180,000 Price Depends on Quantum Security
Why Bitcoin’s $180,000 Price Depends on Quantum Security
Bitcoin’s long-term price outlook may depend on a problem most everyday investors rarely think about: quantum computing.
According to Eliezer Ndinga, Global Head of Research at digital asset firm 21Shares, Bitcoin could climb as high as $180,000 but only if the network successfully addresses the threat that quantum technology poses to its encryption.
Until then, uncertainty continues to hang over the market.
Why Quantum Computing Has Bitcoin Investors on Edge
Quantum computing is no longer just science fiction. Major tech firms and governments are investing heavily in it, and progress is accelerating.
The concern is simple but serious: powerful quantum computers could eventually break the cryptographic systems that secure Bitcoin wallets. If that happens, large portions of Bitcoin could become vulnerable to theft.
Ndinga summed up the situation plainly, calling quantum risk “a cloud in the air” for Bitcoin. In his view, developers must confront it head-on before the market can move confidently higher.
“If the quantum threat is resolved,” he said, “Bitcoin can go to $180,000.”
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Institutional Investors Are Paying Attention
This isn’t just a fringe concern. Some of the biggest names in finance have raised similar questions.
- UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti has said Bitcoin must prove it can withstand quantum advances
- Ray Dalio and BlackRock executives have echoed related concerns
- Christopher Wood of Jefferies Group recently removed Bitcoin from his long-standing portfolio recommendation, shifting his focus back to gold and gold-mining stocks
Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, previously noted that among institutional investors, concern about Bitcoin’s long-term security is far more widespread than many realize.
In short, large investors are watching closely and hesitation at that level matters.
How Much Bitcoin Is Actually at Risk?
The numbers are hard to ignore.
Researchers at Chaincode Labs estimate that 20% to 50% of all Bitcoin could be exposed if quantum computers become capable of breaking current encryption standards.
That represents roughly $400 billion to $900 billion at today’s prices. This estimate includes dormant coins, such as the roughly 1 million Bitcoin believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.
Ndinga describes the threat in two parts:
- Magnitude: potentially catastrophic
- Timing: uncertain
Quantum breakthroughs could happen in a few years or take decades. That uncertainty alone is enough to make cautious investors pause.
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Why Bitcoin Developers Can’t Ignore This Anymore
For years, quantum risk was treated as a distant issue. That’s changing.
“Crypto has to grow up,” Ndinga said, suggesting the industry can no longer afford to postpone uncomfortable conversations.
From an investment perspective, he added, failing to acknowledge the risk damages credibility. Institutional investors expect transparency, even when the answers aren’t perfect.
A Possible Solution: Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360
While concern is rising, developers aren’t standing still.
One of the most discussed proposals is BIP 360, developed by Hunter Beast and Ethan Heilman, with contributions from Isabel Foxen Duke.
Rather than forcing a disruptive network-wide upgrade, BIP 360 introduces optional quantum-resistant Bitcoin addresses. Users could voluntarily move their funds into more secure cryptographic structures over time.
This approach aims to:
- Reduce long-term quantum exposure
- Avoid breaking existing wallets
- Maintain compatibility with Lightning and Layer-2 networks
The proposal has been in development for more than two years and remains one of the most talked-about draft Bitcoin Improvement Proposals on record.
That said, Bitcoin’s development process moves slowly by design. Even widely supported changes can take years to activate.
Prepared, Not Panicked
Despite the urgency, developers caution against rushing.
According to Beast, the goal is balance, acknowledging the threat without introducing flawed solutions that could create new problems.
“There’s a general agreement that we still have time,” he said. “But we have to use that time wisely.”
What This Means for Bitcoin’s Future Price
If Bitcoin successfully implements quantum-resistant protections, it could remove a major psychological and technical barrier holding back institutional capital.
That’s where the $180,000 price target comes into play.
Without a solution, however, quantum risk may continue to cap enthusiasm — especially among large investors who prioritize long-term security over short-term gains.
Final Thoughts
Quantum computing doesn’t pose an immediate threat to Bitcoin today, but it’s no longer theoretical either. The technology is advancing, and the market is taking notice.
Bitcoin’s long-term value may depend less on hype cycles and more on how responsibly the network prepares for future risks. If developers get it right, the upside could be significant. If not, uncertainty may linger far longer than bulls expect.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and involve risk. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
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